Weekly Nifty Study Update - 15 Sep 2012

Weekly Nifty Study Update - 15 Sep 2012

I missed this fantastic upmove correcetive rally after covering my all long position due to lack of proper study. But nevermide, Share Market is the only place where you will get multiple opportunity to make money at all the times. For this only thing we want is wait, watch and grab the opportunity.
Shradhha and Subhuri ... Sai baba ki Jai....

Here is the my weekly study update -

Trend line, Channel, Elliott Wave Study -

*             Currently Nifty Close is 5573 and Made high @5593 as per Weekly Nifty LOG chart.

*             Last Candle Given Strong Breakout above the Channel , so expects  price will be move on upside if the this is not the false breakout. we should get the confirmation in the coming week.

*             Now there Price is enter into the strong the resistance zone shown in the above chart with upper sky blue lines.

*             It looks Nifty is still in the correction of the last up move rally from 2227 low to 6341 High. As per New wave analysis, Correction always take minimum same or more time than previous impulsive wave. Pink Vertical lines shows the period and 2 pink line is the same time which the correction wave should take minimum and maximum will the double of the impulsive wave time period.

*             As per the Elliott wave label, since we are in the correction, it has to be in the ABC pattern and i have labeled as per the above. So, Nifty is in the B wave right now and C wave down is still pending. So as per the Elliott wave analysis this is not the strong up move rally.

*             So, we can say that current rally is the c wave rally of the Wave B label in the Red Color.

*             What was the target for this internal C wave? Not sure .. But there are couple of resistance shown in the chart like.. 5580,5630,5650,5720,5850......

*             If Nifty reverse from this resistance then what was the Target for the C wave down? it could be the 4050, 3940, 3730....

*             Green Vertical line shows the period of the corrective move of Wave A (Wave A completed in 42 weeks) , And Equal amount of time is already completed on the path of B wave (now it is 56 weeks completed) ... so we should took the reverse path any time once the price target gets reached. but to be noted that Wave B can go till 84 weeks.

*             One more observation was the GAP in weekly chart seen in between 3721 to 3907 and this could be the target of Wave C down.

We will take a look now on the indicators for the weekly chart....

RSI -

 

 

*             RSI Showing the Strong Channel Breakout same like Price Chart.

*             Positive divergence seen on the RSI as RSI is move above the last high but price is still not break the last top price.

MSCD -

*             Positive divergence seen in the MSCD.

*             Currently, MSCD is moving into the blue channel. Price will get reverse or stabilize when MSCD reached to the upper trend line of the channel in Blue color.

STC -

 

*             Positive Divergence seen in the STC.

*             STC is already given SELL signal on overbought zone in the two weeks before but in the last week it looks it changing its path again towards overbought zone.

Volume - 

 

*             Decrease in  Volume seen in the Corrective wave from the last top 6341.

*             Check Last three Candle in the Price Chart and Volume Chart.. It looks me the Negative divergence.

*             Price Breakout seen on the Low Volume, so question comes in mind that whether this breakout is true or false?  Usually, Low volume High Price predict that the Low price strength and price should correct in coming days.  Lets watch ......

 

Nifty Study on Daily Chart -

*             As per the Elliott wave label, Nifty is in the Correction wave of B in red and b wave in Blue color.

*             After the X label, the move from 5628 to 4756 is the a wave unfolded as wxy three wave.

*             The move from 4756 till current is the process of b wave which have complex correction as wxy.

*             Y wave will have another abc inner wave labeled in small red color. and we current up is the c wave of Y wave.

*             Once the Y wave will get complete, Nifty will start Major rally of Down move as C wave in Red color.

*             Why i consider this current wave b is corrective wave (move from 4756 till now), because b wave in blue already took equal and more time than the previous down move of wave a and still wave a top is not breached.

*             What was the target for the c of b wave? There are couple of the resistance level mention in the weekly chart study.

*             In the current c wave, we are in the 3rd wave, so another up move still left till the resistance level mentioned.

*             No divergence seen on the RSI.

*             RSI is just entering into the overbought zone.

*             RSI is moving into the channel as seen in the daily chart above and still yet to touch the upper trend line of the channel.

*             No divergence seen on the MACD on daily chart.

*             MACD is in the positive zone.    

*             MACD is near the resistance of the trend line moving to the down.

*             STC is in the over brought zone.

*             No Sell signal found on the STC, so price can move up till the STC in the over brought zone.

*             Corrective wave b up move rally is having the LOW volume. So it's another confirmation that we are in the corrective phase. so in short, wait for the wave b to complete and then short    aggressively  for the C wave down which could be the stiff down movement. This signal we          will get on the month of October and November month. Let's wait and watch.

 

Nifty Study  - Hourly Chart

*             Hourly Charts of nifty shows wave c progress on the upside.

*             We can easily labeled the five impulsive wave on the upside and Nifty is in the 3rd of iii wave.

*             Whenever waves are in the impulsive move then we always found the gaps and the same seen as above hourly chart.

*             It is very difficult to say the target of this wave c as iii wave is extended one.

*             Currently wave iii is near to an end and corrective wave iv will start. so it is not advisable to long to play out the wave v. it's better to wait to complete the wave v (if wave v is not extended) /wave y / wave B, then look for opportunity to short for wave C.

*             If wave v is extended then we can look for longs to play for extended wave v otherwise wait for the wave B to complete as said above point.

*             Wait for the reversal signal to go short. Now this is not the time, so advice to wait and watch for to complete this up move and reversal signal on daily or weekly chart.

Happy Investing !!!.

Yog Money Asha